Revealed: The winning formula of a Eurovision song
Predicted 2024 Eurovision winner based on song analysis

PASINO.ch has uncovered the characteristics of winning Eurovision songs from the past 20 years, in addition to the songs most likely to win in 2024 based on the song analysis characteristics
Global search trends for ‘Eurovision songs 2024’ have seen a +16,355% increase in the past 12 months*
Pop (70%) is the top genre for winning Eurovision songs, whilst E Minor (15%) and C Major (15%) are the most common keys, and the average tempo is 123BPM for winning Eurovision songs

With the 2024 Eurovision Song Contest taking place this month, PASINO.ch has analysed the songs of previous Eurovision winners from the past 20 years; to uncover the winning formula of a Eurovision song. PASINO.ch has looked at factors such as the song’s genre, key, BPM, energy, danceability and more.

PASINO.ch’s data analysis revealed:

Top music genres for Eurovision winning songs are:

Pop (70%)
Rock (15%)
Hip Hop (5%)
Future Garage (5%)
Jazz (5%)

Over the past 20 years, the average tempo of a winning song is 123BPM whilst the mode for common tempos are 130BPM and 172BPM, with two winning songs each at these BPM’s.

The more upbeat winning songs include Azerbaijan’s pop number ‘Running Scared’ by Ell and Nikki and Ukraine’s rock classic ‘Wild Dances’ by Ruslana. As for the Danceability, the average from previous Eurovision winning songs is 56% and Energy is 69%.

The most common keys used:

E Min (15%)
C Major (15%)
E Maj (10%)
A Min (10%)
D Min (10%)
B Min (10%)
C Min (10%)

Camelot:

8B (15%)
2A (10%)
5A (10%)
5B (10%)
7A (10%)
10A (10%)
8A (10%)
9A (10%)

The song most likely to win Eurovision 2024 based on previous winning songs

Based on analysis of the winning songs from the past 20 years, PASINO.ch used this data to uncover the 2024 entrants most likely to win based on the Eurovision winning formula that was found.

Greece’s entry ‘Zari’ by Marina Satti meets the genre, key, camelot and energy characteristics of the winning song formula. As a pop song in the C Major key, and a camelot of 8B and energy of 68%, this song is the closest to the previous Eurovision winner songs.

Top winning countries in the past 20 years

Sweden has won the Eurovision Song Contest three times in the past 20 years, with songs including Tattoo and Euphoria by Loreen and Heroes by Mans Zelmerlow. Whilst Ukraine has also won three times, with songs including Stefania by Kalush Orchestra, 1944 by Jamala and Wild Dances by Ruslana. Sweden is the most recent country to win, with Sweden winning in 2023, followed by Ukraine in 2022.

However, were they the predicted winners?

Yes – both Sweden and Ukraine were favourites to win the years that they took the Eurovision crown. Since 2007, 69% of favourites ahead of the contest have gone on to be the final winner. This year, Switzerland are the favourites for the first time since 2007 when they were represented by DJ Bobo with ‘Vampires Are Alive’. This year, Switzerland’s Eurovision entry is ‘The Code’ By Nemo.